reconnectSlotClient() checks isStarted() and calls connect() instead of
reconnect() when the client was stopped, but only the post-NTP stale-token
path used it. The ordinary backoff ladder and the circuit-breaker probe called
slot.client->reconnect() directly, and esp_mqtt_client_reconnect() is a no-op
on a client that is not started.
Two ways in. connect() sets _started only when esp_mqtt_client_start() returns
ESP_OK while setupSlot() sets initial_connect_done unconditionally, so a start
failure under heap pressure stranded the slot. More routinely, the WiFi-drop
handler calls disconnect() on every connected slot, which clears _started —
after that the ladder issued no-ops forever and the slot never came back.
Not caught by the soaks: the log line the guard prints can only come from the
NTP path, so a stranded slot and a slot that never entered the state produce
identical logs. Observed reconnects were broker-side drops with WiFi up, which
leave the client started.
The renewal-bounce path keeps its own isStarted() branch — it needs
softDisconnect(), which the helper does not do.